Retiring into a bad market

Savings you start with. The money you draw from on the day you stop working.

Spending a year. In today’s dollars. It rises with prices, so it buys the same each year.

Share in stocks. The rest is in bonds. Reset to this share every year.

How the bonds behave. Steady is the 10-year inflation-protected Treasury yield on October 6, 2026. Actual years let bonds lose value when interest rates rise.

Other income a year. Social Security or a pension, in today’s dollars. Taken off your spending.

If that income is Social Security. The 2026 Trustees Report. The cut counts only in the years from 2033. Choose No cut for a pension.

Share of that income from Social Security. 100 if all of it is Social Security. Only this share is cut; the rest, such as a pension, is not.

Years before that income starts. 0 means it starts in the first year.

Cut in spending after a bad year. In the year after a bad year you spend this much less than planned.

A bad year loses more than. Your mix, after inflation.

Start year to see year by year. 1966 and 1929 are two of the hardest.

The 12 hardest start years. Hardest first: money that ran out soonest, then money that lasted but ended with the least. The first-5-years figures are the total change after inflation.

Plan as written and with a cut. No taxes or fees. Spending changes only by the cut you choose. Past results set no limit on what the market can do next.

How often the money lasted. A start year is a year you could have retired in. Years overlap, so 69 start years are not 69 separate tests.

Start year 1966, year by year. Today’s dollars. A balance at zero means the money ran out. The mix is reset to 60% stocks every year.