What will groceries cost in 10 years?

Start year. 2026 looks ahead from today. An earlier year tests the method against what really happened.

The cases. Each past period of 10 years that ended by 2026 gives a yearly growth rate of the 11-food basket. The low case is the 10th percentile, the middle case the median and the high case the 90th percentile of those rates. Periods overlap (neighboring periods share most of their years), so the range is narrower than it looks. Prices are national averages in the dollars of each year, not adjusted for inflation. The basket is one unit of each of 11 foods, not a household’s shopping list, and has no price for 1919, 1930, 1978 and 1979, so periods that need those years are skipped. Inflation was negative in the early 1930s and above 10% a year in the 1970s, which is why the range is wide. 2026 means January to August 2026.

Three cases, 10 years on. A range from past periods of the same length, not a forecast and not a promise. Groceries could cost less than the low case or more than the high case.

In paychecks. After-tax pay is the weekly pay of a factory worker after federal income tax, Social Security and Medicare, single, no state tax: an estimate, and one kind of worker. Factory pay is the Census series to 1970 and the Bureau of Labor Statistics series from 1971, with a step of about 4% at the join.

What really happened. Pick an earlier start year to see how the range compared with what happened.