How long you might live
The method behind the chances, and what the method leaves out.
How we work it out
- We start from each country's published death rates by age and sex for 2019, the last year before the pandemic. These come from the World Health Organization, and so does the remaining life at 85 that sets the rates from 85 on. For a place the World Health Organization does not cover (for example Taiwan, Hong Kong, Monaco or Bermuda), we take the 20 countries with a complete WHO table whose life expectancy at birth is closest to that place, separately for men and for women, and average their chances of surviving at each age and their remaining life at 85. The place's own life expectancy at birth (World Bank, from United Nations estimates for 2019; for Taiwan the Ministry of the Interior; for Guernsey the United Kingdom's WHO value, as no figure was found) picks the 20 countries. The page says so when you pick the place: we do not have a table for it, and what the figures use.
- Your habits move those rates up or down. In a study of about 120,000 US adults, people with all five habits had about a quarter of the death risk of people with none. The five are: never smoked; a healthy weight (body mass index 18.5 to 24.9); at least 30 minutes of brisk activity a day; no heavy drinking (no alcohol, or no more than one drink a day for women, two for men); and a healthy diet. We start with two ticked, the average adult. We weaken the effect after 65, because studies find smaller effects at older ages.
- The level of life you pick lowers the yearly death rate from age 40 by the amount seen in US tax and death records for that part of the income range, with half the effect left by age 90. It changes the figures only for places in the United States. It sits on top of the habits setting, and the two overlap a little, so together they can run slightly high.
- If you move, a move counts for all of the difference between the death rates of the two places. The range shows the full spread, plus 15% either way for what we do not know.
The page shows the age half of people live past, before and after a move, and four chances of living longer: average, above average, well above average and exceptional.
What this leaves out
Your own health, your family history, and the care you can reach near home. Air quality, road conditions and distance to a hospital also differ by city, and we do not model them. Differences between neighborhoods inside one city are larger than differences between cities, often 8 to 11 years in US data.
The income effect comes from US records for 2001 to 2014 and measures household income while people were working (ages 40 to 61), not retirees. Richer people also differ in ways the habits setting already counts, and the income gap has probably widened since. The habits effect comes from US health professionals, who are healthier than average, so it may be smaller for other groups. Under 50, we apply the same effect, but most of the studies followed people from 50 on, so it is less certain for younger adults.
Places called blue zones are not shown separately. Their records are disputed, and we found nothing showing they beat their country's average.
Sources
Death rates: World Health Organization life tables, 2019. Income: Chetty and others, JAMA, 2016 (Health Inequality Project). Habits: Li and others, Circulation, 2018. See also Disclaimers and what this is not.