Technical article

A Fixed Foreign Pension Against a Swinging Currency

If the exchange rate moves, how much does their month move with it?

By Neil Solomon · 5 min read

Picture a couple named Dan and Helen. Both are 66. Their Social Security and a small pension come to US$2,000 a month. They are looking at a town where the rent is in local money. They ask a plain question. If the exchange rate moves, how much does their month move with it?

The answer depends on the place. So I looked at what the US Federal Reserve Board published for eight years, 2018 to 2025. These are yearly averages, so they smooth out the bumps inside each year.

The rule that makes this a question

The Social Security Administration says: "We calculate Social Security benefits in U.S. dollars." It also says: "We do not increase or decrease your benefits because of changes in international exchange rates." So the dollar figure holds still. The local figure moves.

What US$2,000 turned into each year

This is my arithmetic: US$2,000 times the yearly average rate.

Source for the rates: Federal Reserve Board, G.5A annual release. The euro rows are in EUR per US$2,000.

How big were the swings

• Mexico. The highest year was 2020 at MXN 43,092. The lowest was 2023 at MXN 35,467. The gap is about 18% of the higher figure.
• Thailand. From THB 62,084 in 2019 to THB 70,569 in 2024. The gap is about 12%.
• South Africa. From ZAR 26,451 in 2018 to ZAR 36,907 in 2023. The gap is about 28%.
• Brazil. From BRL 7,303 in 2018 to BRL 11,178 in 2025. The gap is about 35%.
• Euro area. From EUR 1,691 in 2021 to EUR 1,899 in 2022. A weak dollar year means fewer euros.

Prices in those countries moved too. The World Bank publishes yearly consumer price change for each place (indicator FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG, updated 8 October 2026):

A higher number in a year with higher local prices may buy about the same as before. I have not matched the two tables year by year.

If your pension is in pounds

A UK pension of GBP 1,500 a month, at the same yearly rates, was worth US$1,856 in 2022 and US$2,065 in 2021 (my arithmetic). In Thai baht that was THB 59,451 in 2019 and THB 67,646 in 2024. In Mexican pesos it was MXN 33,091 in 2023 and MXN 41,879 in 2021. Two moving rates are in play when you cross a third currency.

The latest daily rates

On 2 October 2026 the Federal Reserve Board's weekly table showed MXN 18.1920, THB 33.5800 and BRL 5.2222 per US dollar. It also showed USD 1.1259 per euro and USD 1.3234 per pound. The rand was not on that table. These are one-day numbers, not a forecast.

What is left open

• Your bank's rate. The tables show yearly averages, and a bank or transfer provider adds its own margin, so ask for the rate and fee you would be charged.
• Where Social Security can be paid. The SSA says it can pay into "any country that has an international direct deposit agreement with the U.S.", and it "cannot deposit your benefits if a payment restriction applies." The list changes, so check yours.
• Whether a country's own pension rules treat money arriving in a foreign currency in any special way. That is a question for a local accountant, and the figures above do not depend on it.