The Surplus Question: What Could We Spend After the Care Reserve?
How much is ours to enjoy, and how much are we keeping for later?
Picture a couple named Stuart, 70, and Lois, 68. They have saved for forty years and they are good at it. They are less sure how to spend. Lois asked the question one evening: "How much is ours to enjoy, and how much are we keeping for later?"
Stuart drew three layers on a napkin: needs, a care reserve, and the surplus. The care reserve was the layer they had never priced. They looked at public numbers.
The Administration for Community Living, a United States government agency, says almost 7 in 10 people turning 65 will need some long-term care, for about 3 years on average. About a third will not need any, and about one in five will need it for more than 5 years.
| Care, national median in 2025 | Per month | Three years (36 months) |
|---|---|---|
| Non-medical caregiver at home, 44 hours a week, at US$35 an hour | About US$6,670 | About US$240,000 |
| Assisted living | About US$6,200 | About US$223,000 |
| Nursing home, private room | About US$10,800 | About US$389,000 |
(CareScout Cost of Care Survey 2025. Totals are our arithmetic. Prices vary by city and by country.)
Then they ran an example. These numbers are invented to show the arithmetic. They are not a forecast and not advice.
| Layer | Example amount |
|---|---|
| Savings today | US$900,000 |
| Needs: yearly spending beyond Social Security and pensions, for the years ahead | US$400,000 |
| Care reserve, from the table above | US$225,000 to US$390,000 |
| Surplus, what is left | US$110,000 to US$275,000 |
"So the surplus is what we could spend on the trip," Lois said.
"If the reserve is real," Stuart said. "And if the needs number is right."
They agreed the example was a way to look at their own numbers, not their numbers. They also noticed that the reserve is not spent unless care arrives. If it never does, it returns to the household. Neither of them could know which would happen.
Lois wrote one more line on the napkin: Review every year.
You could…
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Fill the three layers with your own numbers, and see what is left.
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Try the care reserve at each of the three levels in the table, and note the spread.
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Choose one thing from the surplus to enjoy this year, and write it down.
What did your three layers look like? Share it here. Someone reading may be drawing theirs tonight.
Figures are estimates for planning, based on public data. The savings, needs and surplus amounts are invented examples. Sources: Administration for Community Living; CareScout Cost of Care Survey 2025.
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